Super Tuesday was not
supposed to mean anything in Illinois. The state has voted Democratic
since George H.W. Bush’s campaign. The Land of Lincoln became Obama
Country, so much so that Sen. Barack Obama’s only real concern was that
voters would be so assured of his victory that they’d complacently skip
voting.
That didn’t happen.
Obama’s victory over Sen.
Hillary Clinton, nearly 32 percentage points, couldn’t have surprised
anyone paying attention to the rumbling momentum of the Illinois junior
senator. Leading up to the Feb. 5 Illinois primary, the Democratic
campaign was on a trajectory dictating that each candidate’s future was
only as certain as the last state’s outcome.
Obama surprised Clinton in
Iowa caucus. Clinton returned the favor by surprising Obama (and
pollsters across the nation) in the New Hampshire primary. At the
conclusion of South Carolina’s primary, Clinton was in a position no one
could have foreseen: frantically bailing water out of a leaky campaign.
Illinois advanced its primary
by six weeks, an announcement generally considered a strategic move
favoring Obama by both taking advantage of his (shortsightedly)
projected anonymity and thereby making his likely success in Illinois
more important on the national stage.
By early February, Obama had
long shed any anonymity and was one of the most recognizable public
figures in the nation. Illinois’ primary position changed from
truncating the consideration for which voters had time to underlining
Obama’s momentum. Obama’s immense success in the Illinois primary was an
obvious end to a straight-forward scenario.
Although Illinois is
generally considered a moderately red state overpowered by the cerulean
swirl of Chicago, it has not been considered a Republican threat since
the first president Bush administration. Illinois is not completely
barren of popular Republicans. U.S. Congressman Everett Dirksen (R-Ill.)
was both popular and influential in the Civil Rights movement in the
1960s. Republican Congressmen Henry Hyde and Denny Hastert were elected
overwhelmingly in their Illinois districts.
But this year, the
Republicans were playing with the casino’s money. Polling reports never
showed more than 25 percent support for the GOP. According to CNN’s exit
poll statistics, Republican voting behavior in Illinois was long decided
before the primary arrived in the state. Nearly 72 percent of registered
Republican voters said they decided whom to support a week or more
before Super Tuesday.
Of those who made up their
minds in advance, nearly half of them had decided to vote for Arizona
Sen. John McCain, whereas 26 percent settled on Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney. This suggests that there was a strong personal dislike for
Romney. Illinois Republicans have generally been moderates, focused less
on social issues such as religion and immigration and more on economic
issues.
Romney attempted to parlay
his business career into an advantage and a surprise success over the
favored McCain. When it came time to vote however, voters, including
those who said the economy was their primary concern, chose McCain.
Those same polling results suggested that Illinois voters saw Romney as
the closest heir to the Bush throne, something that in this state was
seen as negative by 60 percent of right wing voters.
Illinois had the third
highest voter turnout of all the primaries up to and including Super
Tuesday, trailing only New Hampshire and Massachusetts.
If the only surprise born
from the Republican Illinois primary results was the incongruence
between the issues important to voters and the manner in which they
voted, the lone surprise for the Democrats was the ferocity with which
Illinois voters sent their message.
More than 20 states inhabited
elementary school gymnasiums and retirement homes on Super Tuesday to
produce more voters than any other year. The last time turnout was near
this high was in 1972 during a boiling point in another unpopular war.
But that’s ancient history.
It was going to take a
miracle for a Republican candidate to have a Nixon-like showing powerful
enough to eclipse the Democrats and their mantras of hope and change.
All race and gender issues
aside, Illinois had a particular conundrum in that the state had
previously gushed over Bill Clinton in both 1992 and again in 1996. He
was a Democrat who turned the U.S. economy around and appeased
Republicans in so doing
Additionally, it remained to
be seen whether Illinois voters would identify with Obama’s current
state representation or with Clinton’s childhood roots in Illinois. Less
than 18 months earlier, Obama was a parlor trick. To hear most politicos
discuss Obama in the fall and winter of 2006, he was supposed to be the
fresh-faced junior varsity ballplayer trying to usurp Clinton’s varsity
position.
It was cute, but it wouldn’t
happen, couldn’t happen; not with Clinton’s experience, support and
finances. Clinton was supposed to be a powerhouse in Illinois, a state
that drooled over her husband for eight years.
As voters scuttled into
polling places on Feb. 5, many viewed Illinois as a big state promised
to Obama, it would lessen the impact of Clinton’s probable win in New
Jersey. But it wasn’t always that way. Illinois was one of the first
Democratic states to embrace Obama, which is a statement of greater
magnitude than a simple nod to the hometown hero. Illinois is not only
the sixth largest state and therefore wields a great deal of influence,
but the overwhelming support Obama has received from moderate
Republicans and independents goes a long way toward defining his
electability.
Even Bill Clinton wasn’t as
successful in attracting opposing constituencies in Illinois as Obama.
The lesson learned in
Illinois can be teased from the state voting results. By Super Tuesday’s
conclusion, Clinton walked away with a small handful of powerful states,
the places in which she had either long ago hammered her stakes or
happened to represent in the U.S. senate.
Obama took everything else.
If Obama becomes this
nation’s 44th president, Illinois will surely be seen as both an
integral and an influential state in the process. Almost 33 percent of
registered voters turned out in Illinois on Feb. 5, beating the previous
record set in 1980 at 29.9 percent.
Nearly 500,000 more Illinois
voters were registered in this year’s open primary than in 2000,
equaling a total of about 7.17 million registered state voters. The
numbers favoring Obama have been surprising, pointed and indeed
indicative of the trajectory of Obama’s campaign.
Nine out of every 10 black
voters supported Obama on Feb. 5, a constituency all but owned by Bill
Clinton during his tenure and a base long believed also to belong to
Hillary. Obama also edged out Clinton among white voters and women,
albeit by lesser margins.
The message remained clear,
Obama truly is Illinois’ favorite son.
Illinois appeared to be a
barometer for the rest of the country before the rest of the country was
aware of it. As voter turnout records bloat and split open from one
state to the next, the question is why?
Voters don’t normally invade
the polls unless they have a compulsion to do so. State-by-state,
primary-by-primary, Obama’s pistons continued pumping faster and faster,
while Clinton’s campaign engine sputtered and stalled. The voters of
this blue state voiced their hesitant support for McCain and might very
well support Clinton should Obama fall from the race.
But he hasn’t and it doesn’t appear his
demise is pending. If Obama hangs onto the Democratic nomination,
Illinois will most certainly come to symbolize the assuredness so
front-and-center in his campaign. Voters are appearing, more now than
ever before.